Rassegna serale: il blocco USA-Iran e l'impennata del petrolio scuotono i mercati

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Global markets remained on edge Monday as geopolitical tensions and corporate developments drove volatility across asset classes. The US escalated pressure on Iran with a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged on supply fears, Bitcoin traded sideways amid uncertainty, and Goldman Sachs shares fell despite strong earnings.

Trump Iran developments

The US said it began blocking ships from entering or exiting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, marking a significant escalation after peace talks with Iran collapsed.

“We can’t let a country blackmail or extort the world, because that’s what they’re doing,” President Donald Trump told reporters outside the Oval Office after the blockade took effect at 10 a.m. ET.

Asked about the goal of the move, Trump said, “Both of those things, certainly, and more,” referring to forcing Iran to reopen the strait and return to negotiations.

The blockade applies to vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, though US Central Command clarified it would not impede neutral shipping. The move follows failed negotiations in Pakistan and rising tensions after a fragile ceasefire showed signs of breaking down.

Iranian officials responded with warnings that the blockade could push global energy prices higher, underscoring the broader economic risks tied to the conflict.

Crude oil surges on supply fears

Oil prices spiked above $100 per barrel amid concerns over supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Prices later eased slightly, with Brent crude at $98.41 per barrel, up 3.4%, and WTI at $97.99, up 1.4%. Physical crude in Europe traded even higher, with some grades reaching around $150 per barrel, according to reports.

The rally was driven by fears of escalating conflict and potential retaliation by Iran, which has threatened Gulf ports. At the same time, some tankers began avoiding the region, adding to supply concerns.

However, gains were tempered after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its second-quarter demand forecast by 500,000 barrels per day, highlighting uncertainty in the demand outlook.

Bitcoin steadies amid uncertainty

Bitcoin traded above $73,400 as investors stayed cautious ahead of key macroeconomic data and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The cryptocurrency held above the $70,000 level, a key psychological support, while the broader crypto market saw modest gains, with total market capitalization rising 1.1% to about $2.5 trillion.

Market participants are closely watching the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which could influence expectations around inflation and interest rates. Persistent inflation could delay potential rate cuts, adding pressure to risk assets.

At the same time, traders are monitoring key technical levels, with support around $70,000 likely to determine near-term price direction.

Goldman Sachs results disappoint investors

Shares of Goldman Sachs fell 1.4% despite the bank reporting a 19% rise in first-quarter profit, as investors focused on weaker segments and a more uncertain outlook.

Revenue rose 14.4% year-on-year to $17.23 billion, beating expectations, while global banking and markets revenue climbed 19%. Investment banking and equities trading were key drivers of growth.

However, fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) revenue fell 10%, missing estimates and weighing on sentiment.

Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at IG, said the results failed to “pique investors’ attention,” adding, “Goldman Sachs has delivered a solid set of numbers, but in this environment, ‘solid’ isn’t quite enough to keep investors interested. The strength in equities trading and dealmaking shows that the machine is still firing on all cylinders, yet the drop in FICC revenues is a reminder that this is not a one-way street, especially with markets being buffeted by the Iran war,” he said.

He also warned about the broader outlook: “The bigger issue is that Goldman’s results feel like a snapshot of a world that may already be fading,” noting rising oil prices and inflation risks.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:1159d673c094b:0-evening-digest-us-iran-blockade-oil-surge-shake-markets/