"Il periodo più favorevole per Bitcoin" si verifica quando l'indice dei prezzi al consumo (CPI) supera i rendimenti a breve termine, e un ex stratega di Wall Street afferma che siamo quasi arrivati a quel punto

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Key points:
Macro investor Jordi Visser says Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from technology stocks, breaking a long-standing correlation that defined how institutional investors categorized the asset.
Visser argues that artificial intelligence disruption threatens the pricing power and margins of traditional software companies, while Bitcoin is one of the few digital assets that could benefit rather than be disrupted.
The macro setup is favorable for Bitcoin, and the strongest historical regime for Bitcoin comes when inflation runs above short-term yields.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering its "strongest regime yet" as global markets are reshaped by a mix of artificial-intelligence (AI) disruption, growing inflation, and structural scarcity, believes Jordi Visser, a strategist with 30 years of Wall Street expertise in traditional finance and macroeconomics.

In his most recent Substack published on Saturday, Visser, the former managing director at Morgan Stanley, said that Bitcoin was starting to decouple from its long-standing association with technology equities, a change that might alter its position in portfolios. "Bitcoin has started to separate from its software correlation," he noted, as conventional technology is under increasing threat from fast improvements in AI.

AI Disruption Reshapes The Investment Landscape

Visser contended that AI is no longer merely a productivity tale, but a disruptive force that affects labor, software economics, and business pricing power. As AI agents become more capable of doing sophisticated jobs ranging from coding to negotiating, the value of conventional software enterprises may suffer.

However, Bitcoin stands out. Unlike other IT businesses, it is not dependent on sales, margins, or corporate demand. Instead, its value is predicated on fixed supply and digital scarcity, making it, in Visser's opinion, one of the few "code-based" assets that might gain rather than be disrupted by AI.

Macro Setup Turning Favorable

The second pillar of Visser's theory is macroeconomics. He mentioned a possible move toward negative real interest rates, in which inflation exceeds short-term yields, a circumstance previously linked to positive Bitcoin performance. “The strongest regime for Bitcoin is when CPI is above short-term yields, and the Fed is on hold or easing,” Visser noted, adding that such conditions have previously driven outsized returns.

He also mentioned a shifting inflation dynamic, driven not by short-term shocks, but by structural demand for physical resources such as energy, semiconductors, and infrastructure required to enable AI development.

The Rise Of Scarcity Economy

Visser also brought up concerns about how well existing financial institutions would hold up in the age of powerful AI, especially when it comes to cybersecurity and systemic weaknesses. He said that Bitcoin's attractiveness as a decentralized option for a low-trust environment might grow as centralized solutions become more risky.

Visser remarked that the emergence of AI agents taking part in economic activities might be a major long-term driver. These systems may choose assets with high liquidity, clear regulations, and acceptability throughout the world since they can trade and distribute capital on their own. Bitcoin's current network effects, together with its limited supply and use by businesses, make it a possible default layer for transactions made by machines.

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $72,788, up over 0.1% over the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:359b3554e094b:0/