Il mercato ribassista di Bitcoin potrebbe essere in fase di contrazione, ma stiamo forse assistendo a una ripetizione della storia?

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Bitcoin has fallen back below $70,000 as selling pressure continues to dominate among crypto traders. Notably, there is currently little sign of strong buying demand that could stop further downside and the current structure still leaves room for a Bitcoin price drop below $60,000.

Interestingly, technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin price action is beginning to resemble the pattern it created during the 2022 bear market, with long-term data showing that Bitcoin’s bear cycles have gradually become less severe over time.

Bitcoin’s Bear Market Cycles Are Shrinking

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s entire price history shows that post-cycle drawdowns have been compressing with almost mechanical precision. This pattern hiding in plain sight was laid out by crypto analyst CrypFlow on the social media platform X.

According to the analyst, each major bear market has produced a smaller percentage decline than the previous one, starting with a 93% collapse after the 2011 top. The 2013 top was followed by an 87% collapse. After the run of 2017, the market gave back 84%. Lastly, when the 2021 bull cycle peaked, the subsequent bear market stopped at a comparatively modest 78% decline.

The argument is that Bitcoin’s growth into a deeper, more liquid market has gradually reduced the kind of downside volatility that defined its early years. Based on that context, the next major bear market low would not need to rival the bloodshed of prior cycles. Therefore, it is safe to assume a worst-case scenario of a 70% drawdown from Bitcoin’s 2025 peak price of $126,080.

Extrapolating that compression forward, a 70% crash from the 2025 cycle top would place Bitcoin somewhere around $37,000. However, the analyst also noted that this price is not a bottom forecast. It is also worth noting that Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below the previous cycle top during a bear market. In this case, that previous cycle top is 2021’s peak around $69,000.

Familiar 2022 Bull Trap And Possible Drop To $50,000

Bitcoin’s bear market cycles might be shrinking, but a look at the current price pattern shows it might be playing out just like it did in the 2022 bear market. This was revealed in a setup by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Chiefy on X.

In that setup, Bitcoin’s current price action was placed side by side with the 2022 bear market, with both periods showing what a textbook sequence of a bear trap followed by a bull trap.

In September 2022, Bitcoin staged what appeared to be a recovery bounce at $18,000 after a brutal descent. However, this led to a bull trap around $21,000 that lured buyers in before the price action rolled over and carved out fresh lows.

The script playing out in early 2026, according to this analysis, is identical. The bear trap in this case was Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 in February and then another bull trap as it pushed to $74,000. If the 2022 analogy holds, that bounce is not a recovery. It is a setup, and the next Bitcoin price low, the analyst warns, is around $50,000.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:79ff88f0d094b:0-bitcoin-bear-market-could-be-shrinking-but-are-we-watching-history-repeating-itself/