Despite the modest recovery, spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows point to growing indecision among large investors.

Data from CoinGlass showed Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows of $167.20 million on Monday, followed by outflows of $66.60 million on Tuesday, reflecting a lack of conviction in either direction.

Derivative market positioning echoed that caution, with traders showing no strong directional bias.

The subdued activity suggests Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the near term.

Geopolitical uncertainty weighs on risk appetite

The recent price recovery was initially driven by improving risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump signalled the possibility of peace talks with Iran earlier this week.

Bitcoin rose more than 4% on Monday following those developments.

However, uncertainty surrounding the negotiations has kept markets on edge.

Iran’s military spokesperson dismissed US ceasefire efforts, stating on state television that Washington’s strategic power had turned into “strategic failure,” according to media reports.

These developments have left investors cautious, with markets awaiting clearer signals on whether tensions will escalate or ease.

A definitive outcome—positive or negative—could trigger sharp moves in Bitcoin and broader risk assets.

Range-bound price action persists

Bitcoin’s recent trading pattern reinforces the current lack of direction.

The cryptocurrency has moved above $72,000 twice this month, only to face selling pressure that pushed prices back into the $67,000–$65,000 range.

Traders have increasingly opened short positions near these upper levels, contributing to a rise in open interest and reinforcing resistance in the current range.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the broader crypto market has shown resilience.

Bitcoin has outperformed traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver since early February, highlighting continued demand even amid macro uncertainty.

However, the latest price action suggests that while downside may be limited, upside momentum is also constrained without a clear catalyst.

Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remains closely tied to macro developments, particularly geopolitical tensions and their impact on broader risk sentiment.

With ETF flows alternating, derivatives markets neutral, and resistance holding near recent highs, the cryptocurrency appears poised to trade within a defined range until a clearer catalyst—either from geopolitics or institutional flows—emerges.

Morgan Stanley ETF launch in focus

Attention is also turning to potential new institutional catalysts.

According to Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas, Morgan Stanley may be close to launching its spot Bitcoin ETF.

The New York Stock Exchange has announced the listing of the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust on NYSE Arca under the ticker MSBT, a step that typically precedes a launch.

Morgan Stanley first filed for the product in January and recently submitted an amended S-1 registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/2036838119790571810

Balchunas noted that the move is significant, describing Morgan Stanley as the “first bank to do a Bitcoin ETF,” highlighting the scale of its distribution network, which includes 16,000 financial advisors managing $6.2 trillion in assets.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:d360b642c094b:0-btc-holds-near-71k-are-there-signs-of-a-breakthrough-ahead/